Texas Republicans haven’t lost a US Senate race in almost four decades.
But the polls keep flashing red, and plenty of the panic starts inside the GOP.
And Donald Trump just told a packed coliseum the one thing he’ll never do if Texas lets it slip.
Trump Packs San Antonio and Drops a Warning Nobody Saw Coming
President Trump recently brought a get-out-the-vote rally to the Joe Freeman Coliseum in San Antonio. It marked his third trip to the Lone Star State since late September.
Rally-goers filled the building close to capacity. Several thousand more stood outside in the warm afternoon, watching the speakers on an outdoor jumbotron while vendors worked the line hawking Trump gear.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee for US Senate, appeared alongside Carlos de la Cruz, a Republican running for the US House.
Then Trump said the line everybody is still talking about.
“I’ll never forgive Texas if Talarico wins,” Trump told the cheering crowd.
Presidents don’t usually talk that way about a state their party has dominated for a generation.
He hammered the border next, reminding the crowd what the Biden years looked like and warning that Democrats would bring that mess right back.
“If they get in, they will open your borders and let the entire world pour in like they did before. We can’t let that happen,” Trump said.
But he saved his sharpest jab for Democrat James Talarico, the Austin state representative running against Paxton.
“A vote for Talafreako is a vote to turn Texas into a dirty, failing, crime-ridden third-world dumping ground,” Trump said, before adding, “The people of Texas are NOT going to let weak, gutless, self-hating, transgender-promoting FREAK SHOWS destroy everything that we’ve built.”
Outside, the Party for Socialism and Liberation and the Bexar County Democrats ran twin protests along Houston Street. At least 200 demonstrators showed up, many hoisting vulgar anti-ICE signs and some ugly pictures of the President.
The PSL, an openly Marxist outfit, promoted its protest on Instagram by blasting what it called “Trump’s campaign of terror through ICE.” The same post insisted “Texas is not a lost cause.” Funny enough, the Marxists and the President seem to agree on that much, just for opposite reasons.
Police kept the two crowds apart, and the protesters stayed peaceful.
The Numbers Have Republicans Sweating in a Deep-Red State
And the warning makes more sense once you look at the polling.
A New York Times and Siena poll released in early October put Talarico ahead of Paxton 51 percent to 45 percent. Back in June, the same pollster found the two men tied at 47.
Ad tracking firm AdImpact puts total spending in the race above $442 million, the second-highest figure the firm has ever logged for a non-presidential contest.
Early voting opens October 19 and runs through October 30. Election Day falls on November 3.
Washington’s Party Bosses Spent Months Trying to Stop Paxton
But here’s the part most coverage glosses over. Paxton didn’t win his nomination with Washington’s blessing.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) backed incumbent Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) in the primary and reportedly pressed Trump to step in on Cornyn’s behalf. Cornyn, for the record, led Republican negotiations on Joe Biden’s 2022 gun control law.
Thune described the support his allied super PAC gave Cornyn as a “business decision” that would free up money for other states.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee spent months tearing into Paxton. Once his runoff victory came into view, the NRSC quietly wiped its anti-Paxton posts off its website and social media accounts.
Senate Leadership Fund, the main super PAC tied to Thune, had already reserved close to $350 million in fall airtime across eight states. Texas didn’t make the cut.
And by the summer, Thune’s political team made clear that hauling Paxton to victory would fall to Trump’s operation. Trump’s main PAC stepped up, sending Paxton another $5 million.
To be fair, the establishment cavalry eventually rode in. Texas PAC, the outfit connected to Thune, has now spent $131 million on the race according to federal filings, and Thune himself says the party has to “go all-in.”
But money that shows up after the polls slide carries a lot of baggage. The same party committee that spent the primary calling Paxton a liability now wants voters to forget it ever said a word. Maybe a nine-figure ad blitz erases that. Maybe it doesn’t. Nobody knows yet.
Schumer Swallowed Hard in Michigan While Thune Made Paxton Wait
Democrats handled their own primary upset very differently.
In Michigan, left-wing outsider Abdul El-Sayed knocked off Representative Haley Stevens (D-MI) by roughly a single point. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) had recruited Stevens and endorsed her.
El-Sayed ran on Medicare for All, a full government takeover of American healthcare that would hand Washington bureaucrats the power to decide which treatments patients get and when. During the campaign he even bragged, “If you’re Chuck Schumer, I’m dangerous.”
Schumer didn’t sulk. Right after the result, he said he’d work with El-Sayed to hold the seat.
Democrat leaders will swallow a nominee pushing socialized medicine if it keeps a seat blue. Republican leaders spent the Texas primary treating their own voters’ pick as a problem to be managed.
What Trump’s Texas Warning Really Says About the Fight Ahead
Notice what Trump did here. He didn’t send a memo or a surrogate. He flew to San Antonio and put his own name on the line in front of thousands of Texans.
That tells you who actually holds the coalition together. The donor class backed Cornyn. Primary voters picked Paxton. Trump stood with the voters.
And the old guard hasn’t let it go. The same insiders who warned that a Paxton nomination would drain money and maybe cost the seat will have their talking points ready no matter how the race ends.
The bigger fight comes after Trump leaves office, when the establishment wing tries to pry the party back from the America First voters who rebuilt it. Vice President JD Vance stands at the front of that movement as the MAGA heir apparent, and the Washington crowd that fought Paxton has every reason to dread that matchup too.
That might be reading a lot into one Texas Senate race. But it might not.
Texas voters get the final word once early voting opens on October 19. Trump has already made his own feelings crystal clear.
Sources:
Breitbart News, “Trump – ‘I’ll Never Forgive Texas if Talarico Wins,’ Speaking at GOTV Rally in San Antonio”
Fox 7 Austin, “Talarico continues to lead polls as spending ramps up in Texas Senate race”
The Texas Tribune, “Senate GOP leaders spent months trashing Paxton. Can they turn the page and unify against Talarico?” (via States Newsroom)
The Texas Tribune, Senate Leadership Fund $100 million Texas ad buy report
States Newsroom, “Senate GOP smashing political spending records in Texas with ad-buying binge for Ken Paxton”
Axios, “Poll: Talarico has slim lead over Paxton in Texas Senate race”
Newsweek, “Paxton gets another $5 million boost as Talarico remains ahead in Texas”
CBS News, “Abdul El-Sayed projected to win Michigan Democratic Senate primary, defeating Haley Stevens”
C-SPAN Newsletters, “El-Sayed defeats Stevens in Michigan”
Axios via Ground News, “Schumer’s path to the majority runs through his Democratic critics”